A decidedly unpopular Bush and his equally unpopular
war in Iraq were too much for too many incumbent
Republicans to overcome, particularly since they also were
saddled with a skimpy list of legislative accomplishments
and were on the defensive on immigration, corruption and
spending.
Even with control of the Senate still up for grabs
early this morning, this was a very good election for
Democrats, decisively bringing to an end 12 years of
Republican rule in the House. But it never quite matched
the Republican political tidal wave of 1994.
The impending Democratic takeover of the House carries
both good and bad news for California. The state loses the
chairmanships of four major committees – Appropriations,
Ways and Means, Rules, and Armed Services, whose chairman
now is Duncan Hunter of Alpine.
But, for the first time in history, California gains
the speakership in San Francisco's Nancy Pelosi. And it
gains the chairmanships of the Government Reform, House
Administration, International Relations, Education, and
Veterans Affairs committees. San Diegan Bob Filner will be
chairman of Veterans Affairs.
That Democrats had a good night in the sixth year of a
Republican presidency is hardly surprising from a historic
standpoint. But only a year ago the smart money was on
Republicans to counter history and hold their losses to a
minimum. “Experts” talked of the computer-driven drawing
of district lines so artful that challengers had little
chance; of a fearsome GOP organizational advantage in
targeting and turning out friendly voters; and of
Republicans' traditional edge in money.
There was truth in all of that. But gerrymanders,
political machinery and fundraising are no match for
voters who are angry, anxious and yearning for change. And
that is the portrait of the American electorate yesterday.
Some of that anger was directed at an unpopular
president who emerges from this election as “the lamest of
lame ducks,” according to Sherry Bebitch Jeffe, a senior
scholar at the University of Southern California.
“This is a major embarrassment. It is a repudiation of
his policies; it is a repudiation of his leadership
style,” she said. “And it is a definite vote for changes
in his Iraq war policies.”
However, Republican pollster Frank Luntz said the
discontent is about more than just the president.
“There is an anxious mood in America,” said Luntz. “It
has become deep and the public mindset has soured and
they're looking to have that weight lifted from their
shoulders. That's what this election is about, I believe –
to get that weight off people's shoulders so they can
breathe easy and be optimistic again.”
Luntz was an architect of the strategy in 1994 that
captured the House for the GOP and he cited “working-class
voters” as a key both then and now. “They are the ones who
gave it to the Republicans in 1994. It looks like they
have gone back to the Democrats in 2006,” he said.
In the end, he said, all the current political issues –
the war, immigration, corruption, Bush – came together and
voters “decided that the fear of change was less a driver
than fear of the status quo. . . . They feel that things
aren't working and they'd rather give somebody else a
chance to do a better job.”
That anxiety was nowhere more evident than in Virginia,
that reddest of red states, which has not strayed from the
Republican fold in the 10 presidential elections since
1964. What was supposed to be a cakewalk for Republican
incumbent Sen. George Allen turned into a cliffhanger with
Democrat Jim Webb that likely will result in a recount.
One of the most interesting aspects of the election is
how many of the newly elected Democratic representatives
are moderate to conservative. Most of the freshmen are
decidedly more conservative than the leadership who will
be giving them orders.
Both Speaker-to-be Nancy Pelosi of San Francisco and
most of the incoming committee chairmen are old-school
liberals. They mostly came of age at a time of George
McGovern and Hubert Humphrey. But the freshmen are much
more Bill Clinton Democrats who will come to Washington
looking for centrist ways to get things done.
But with eyes cast already toward tough re-election
battles in two years, they will never be automatic votes
for the Democratic agenda if the old bulls shape it as too
liberal.