WASHINGTON - Barack Obama's decision today to
launch his presidential candidacy today will
confront the Illinois Democrat with a daunting
array of obstacles, ranging from raising tens of
millions of dollars, pronto, to mobilizing a
small army of seasoned operatives.
But his most difficult challenge might be to
wage a campaign that avoids tarnishing his image
as an uncompromised alternative to the stale and
polarized politics of the past.
"He is fresh. He is not part of the problem,"
observed Stephen Wayne, an expert on
presidential politics at Georgetown University.
"His message is that there's hope, and he is the
personification of what's good with America.
Look at what America did for him, and now he
wants to return the favor.
"That's a very, very appealing image. There
are a lot of Republicans who are very, very
anti-(Sen. Hillary) Clinton. I don't know
anybody who is anti-Obama. So don't give them a
reason to be mad at you."
But safeguarding that trademark might prove
difficult, given what is shaping up as a
competitive struggle for the Democratic
nomination followed by a showdown with the
Republican Party for control of the White House.
Voters, let alone his competitors, will
demand that Obama, a neophyte on the national
stage, prove his readiness for the presidency.
That will require moving beyond gauzy bromides
about the promise of America to laying out a
specific platform for dealing with a laundry
list of problems, from Iraq to health care,
education, global warming and energy.
"Obviously, you have to have a bigger
message, as (Obama) has articulated about hope
and moving the country forward," observed Steve
Elmendorf, deputy campaign manager for John
Kerry's unsuccessful presidential campaign in
2004. "But at the end of the day, you still have
to have policies. I don't care how big your
message is, you've got to have something
specific to say about things."
Meeting this demand will pose the temptation
to tailor his proposals to appeal to specific
interest groups. Past presidential campaigns are
replete with candidates who pandered to their
party's most fervent supporters in the
primaries, only to falter in trying to claim the
center in the general election.
"If he is going to have a shot at this -
above and beyond his charisma," said John Zogby,
an independent pollster, "he has to represent
something different, which is to go beyond being
the blue state candidate for blue states only" -
a reference to Democratic states.
How can Obama pull this off?
John Pitney, former acting director of
research for the Republican National Committee
and now a political science professor at
Claremont McKenna College in California, pointed
to President Bill Clinton's willingness in 1992
to defy liberals in winning the Democratic
nomination. By supporting capital punishment,
free trade with Mexico and welfare reform,
Clinton preserved his credibility sufficiently
to win the general election.
"If Obama wants to reach out to Republicans
and independents (for a general election
campaign), he needs to find an issue that shows
he is not simply a party-line Democrat," Pitney
said.
Obama's immediate itinerary following his
announcement today calls for visits to Iowa and
New Hampshire, two early-voting states where he
will have to meet what might well be sky-high
expectations for his candidacy.
As a practical matter, experts say, Obama
might need to finish a strong second in the
curtain-raising Iowa caucuses, do equally well
in the Nevada caucuses that follow, and then win
the first-in-the-nation New Hampshire primary.
Failure to meet those benchmarks could cause
money and media attention to dry up.
Next is the primary in South Carolina, which
could develop into a showdown between Obama and
Clinton over the black vote.
All that might be a prelude to what could be
a titanic, coast-to-coast battle on Feb. 5,
2008, with possible primaries in such huge
battlegrounds as California, Florida, Illinois
and New Jersey as well as a number of smaller
states. That would be a blitzkrieg across a
complex political chessboard, requiring a deep
and well-deployed organization, a huge bankroll
and a high degree of name recognition.
If he gets that far, most analysts think
Obama, with his star power, could be well
positioned to win.
But first he has to survive Iowa, where
Barbara Trish, a political scientist at Grinnell
College, observed, "There is a threshold of
organization you have to meet. If you don't, you
can't be competitive.
"The excitement he brings to the race is
going to help. It isn't enough, but it will turn
some heads. He will draw in some activists who
wouldn't otherwise be involved at this stage."
In New Hampshire, Dick Bennett, a pollster
who focuses on the Granite State, said the
contest is shaping up as a battle between "two
rock stars" - Clinton and Obama.
"(Obama) may be able to pull it off, but he
is in the middle of the pool right now," Bennett
said.
"He dove in, and now he has to answer the
questions. None of this, 'Let's all feel good
together because I'm in the race.' It's time
for, 'OK, what are you going to do for me now?'"