As one of the party's most prominent defense hawks, the
Republican from Alpine passes most conservative
ideological litmus tests on issues such as national
security, taxes, abortion and same-sex marriage.
But as a newcomer to national politics, Hunter needs to
raise tens of millions of dollars over the next year to
boost his profile among conservative activists, say
experienced political hands. That effort could be
complicated by the opposition of influential power brokers
because of Hunter's long history of opposing free-trade
deals and promoting tough border security policies.
“We just had an election where Lou Dobbs' candidates on
immigration ended up all over the floor – dead,” said
Grover Norquist, president of Americans for Tax Reform, a
free-market advocacy group, referring to the populist CNN
commentator. “I tend to think it is fool's gold.”
Other top Republicans decry what they consider Hunter's
indifferent record on the effort to curb extravagant
federal spending.
“Our (political action committee) would cross him off
the list,” said David Keating, executive director of the
fiscally conservative Club for Growth. “We wouldn't even
consider endorsing him because his record on fiscal issues
has been so bad.”
In assessing congressional voting records on federal
spending, the conservative National Taxpayers Union
awarded Hunter an “A” grade in 1993, the first year of the
Clinton administration, and a “B+” in 2001, President
Bush's first year in office.
His rating then started to slide, to a “C+.”
However, Hunter's situation is far from unique.
Virtually every potential Republican presidential hopeful
finds himself at odds with some key conservative interest
group. Witness Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney's problems
with social conservatives because of his support for gay
rights.
Conservative activists, GOP political operatives and
experts on primary election politics say there is an
opening on the right for somebody to carry the banner
against such candidates as Arizona Sen. John McCain and
Rudolph Giuliani, the former New York mayor who assumed
quasi-heroic stature after the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist
attacks. Both are generally considered outside the
conservative mainstream on many key issues.
Political experts say Hunter should view his campaign
as an extended audition for the role of conservative
alternative, with an emphasis on his hawkish views on
national defense and border security.
“(Hunter) needs a unique selling proposition. He needs
an issue that's all his own, and that's tough to do,” said
Jack Pitney, a political scientist at Claremont McKenna
College with experience as a Republican policy adviser.
Steven Smith, who runs a public-policy think tank at
Washington University in St. Louis, said: “The Republican
Party right now is fractionated. It's broken down into
little purist groups. . . . They're all looking for a
champion of their cause. And so the question is, what
cause is it Hunter can champion?”
Hunter's skepticism about trade and his aggressive
stance on immigration could be a building block for a
candidacy that exploits simmering anxieties about
globalization among some conservatives.
In his early outings since announcing his interest in a
presidential candidacy, Hunter has blasted China for
cheating the United States on trade deals to use American
dollars to finance a threatening military buildup.
“There is a niche for that,” said Richard Land, who is
attuned to the views of Christian conservatives in his
role as president of the Ethics and Religious Liberty
Commission of the Southern Baptist Convention. “I've got
to tell you that his talk about trade will play well among
some social-conservative constituencies. It will play very
well.”
Opposition to free trade was a key plank in commentator
Pat Buchanan's campaigns for the Republican presidential
nomination in 1992 and 1996.
Both candidacies ultimately fizzled, most notably
during the 1996 primary in South Carolina, when Buchanan
finished a distant second behind Sen. Bob Dole of Kansas,
the eventual nominee.
Buchanan and his strategists thought his trade
protectionism would be a hit with voters in a state whose
textile industries have been ravaged by cheap imports. But
South Carolina by then had rebounded economically by
becoming a strong magnet for foreign investors attracted
by America's open markets.
“Within the conservative movement there is a
protectionist camp, but I don't think it is a majority,”
said David Keene, chairman of the American Conservative
Union. “That is a divisive issue within the movement
itself, and Duncan is one of the leaders of the
nationalist, populist, protectionist standpoint, which
gets him strong support within that group. The question
is, how big is that group? That is not an unalloyed asset
in terms of his makeup as a candidate.”
Joe Gaylord, a GOP consultant, observed, “He can learn
from the Buchanan experience that there is a nerve you can
touch with (opposition to free trade), but it doesn't go
deeply.”
As one of the main congressional sponsors of
legislation toughening border security, Hunter may be
poised to press the immigration hot button in hopes of
cashing in politically on voter unease over a growing
community of illegal immigrants, which now numbers about
12 million.
Many Republican conservatives are unhappy with McCain's
support for legislation that would provide many of those
immigrants a pathway to citizenship, noted William Mayer,
an expert on presidential politics at Northeastern
University.
“There actually is among Republican primary voters a
pretty strong sentiment toward restricting immigration.
. . . I think that stuff will play well,” Mayer said.
Patrick Drinan, a political scientist at the University
of San Diego, said: “A lot of it depends on whether the
conservative movement itself more broadly congeals around
a consensus candidate. In the absence of that, you can
almost say Duncan Hunter has a good shot at either the
presidential nomination or a vice-presidential
nomination.”