Obama, the son of a black
Kenyan father and a white American mother, rocketed to political
stardom at the 2004 Democratic National Convention with a
galvanizing keynote speech that presented a vision of national
reconciliation bridging the divides of race, class, gender and
ideology.
The excitement continues.
“He is hot, and you simply cannot deny that heat and
electricity that he is generating,” said John Zogby, a nonpartisan
pollster.
On the other hand, with the curtain-raising Iowa caucuses still
more than a year away, Obama might prove to be just another
political flash in the pan reminiscent of astronaut-hero John
Glenn in 1984, the Ohio senator who flamed out as soon as
Democrats started voting for a nominee.
And there were others: former Texas Gov. John Connally in 1980;
Phil Gramm, another Texas political powerhouse who was a senator
when he ran in 1996; and retired Army Gen. Wesley Clark in 2004.
All were major public figures whose prior résumés failed to
measure their political talent or presidential stature.
However, many within the political community say they sense
something unique about Obama that could spare him the indignity of
an early exit from the presidential contest – should he decide to
compete.
“His personality and charisma are big assets for him,” observed
Dante Scala, an expert on New Hampshire politics at St. Anselm
College in Manchester. “His record of accomplishments in the
Senate is obviously very thin at this point. But I think there is
a real sense with him that there's a lot of potential there. And
there's the sense that he may represent the turning of a page in
American politics, a new face, a new generation of politicians.”
Those qualities could spell trouble for others in the
Democratic field. “He is enjoying popularity and a media bounce
that I think is close to unprecedented in my 40, 45 years of
observing this process,” said Don Fowler, a former national
chairman of the Democratic Party. “I can't think of anybody who
has just sort of come out of the blue and in such a short time
made such a positive, comprehensive impression on just a wide
range of people.”
Obama's flirtation with a presidential candidacy has already
forced apparent tactical adjustments by other Democratic
competitors lacking his or Clinton's star power.
Possibly fearful of being eclipsed by a looming Obama media
frenzy, Indiana Sen. Evan Bayh announced last weekend – earlier
than expected – that he would create an exploratory committee.
Iowa Gov. Tom Vilsack went further. He became a formal
candidate and embarked on a five-state tour to promote his
campaign.
“When you get a political celebrity in the race, somebody who
is treated as a mega-candidate, it makes it harder for the other
guys to get attention, to get on TV,” argued Stuart Rothenberg,
editor of a political newsletter.
The problem also extends to raising the early cash and to
attracting the savvy local activists needed in the initial round
of competition for national convention delegates in Iowa, New
Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina.
“The overall effect is that it makes it that much more
difficult for second-tier candidates to break out,” Scala said.
“His presence sucks a lot of the oxygen out of the room.”
Obama also may threaten a key component of Clinton's base – the
black vote – that might otherwise find its way to the New York
senator, given the popularity of her spouse, former President
Clinton, with that constituency.
That could be crucial in South Carolina, where Richard
Harpootlian, former chairman of that state's Democratic Party,
said Obama “basically ices the black vote, which means it will be
a much more fragmented process.”
As a consistent critic of the war in Iraq who entered the
Senate after the vote in late 2002 that authorized the use of
force against Saddam Hussein, Obama has another significant
advantage over Clinton, Edwards and Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry,
the unsuccessful 2004 presidential nominee. Although they are
critical of the president's Iraq policy now, they all voted to
give Bush the leeway to invade Iraq, putting them at a potential
disadvantage in a party that has overwhelmingly turned against the
war.
Seasoned veterans such as Harpootlian caution against being
swept away by a candidate who is approaching only his second
anniversary in the Senate after a stint in the Illinois state
Senate. Obama “hasn't had to answer a single specific question
about what he would do,” Harpootlian said. “What's his position on
taxes? What's his position on the budget? What would he do about
the war other than having been against it in the first place? He
is very articulate, very sharp, but very, very young.”
Although Obama could remain in the Senate to gain greater
seasoning, many experts say his moment may be now.
“Why would you want to sit there for another four or eight
years accumulating all those votes in the Senate where people then
have a record to pick apart?” said Duffy, the Democratic
strategist.
Stephen Hess, a presidential scholar at George Washington
University who served in both the Eisenhower and Nixon
administrations, agreed.
“I think he'd make a great mistake if he doesn't run, because
there is a time and tide in these things. . . . Who knows where
you are four years from now, eight years from now, 12 years from
now?”