San Diego Union Tribune

July 1, 2007

Thompson has challenge to turn celebrity into real campaign

BY George E. Condon Jr.
Copley News Service

WASHINGTON For Fred Thompson this is the season of hope and boundless opportunity, born of his folksy demeanor and Hollywood celebrity and fed by conservative distress over the shortcomings of the Republicans already in the presidential race.

When Thompson casts aside his familiar TV role as Manhattan District Attorney Arthur Branch and walks away from the "Law and Order" set later this month ((July)) to run for president he will enjoy tremendous advantages over the candidates who already have been slogging it out in the political trenches most of this year.

Even before the 64-year-old actor officially enters the race just the promise of his candidacy has vaulted him into the top tier of candidates, behind only former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani in most national polls and ahead of former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney and Arizona Sen. John McCain.

His rise already has sent the other campaigns scurrying to find things in the former Tennessee senator's record that might undercut his claims to be both the true conservative in the contest and a genuine outsider. The one thing both Thompson and his critics agree on is that his entry - now expected to come by mid-month - will shake up the race less than seven months before the first votes are cast.

"It affects the race immediately and dramatically by having a fourth major player in the game," said Republican pollster and strategist Whit Ayres, who has done extensive work in Tennessee but is not committed to any candidate in 2008. "Fred Thompson complicates life for both Mitt Romney and John McCain by creating a third conservative alternative to Rudy Giuliani."

And he threatens to outshine his foes on a personal level. "He just has a powerful personal presence," said Ayres. "He really fills up a room and he has the ability to articulate a clear message that normal people can understand."

Thompson's bid gained early credibility when he was able to enlist some respected conservative veterans from past campaigns, including former Bush White House aide Mary Matalin, former Reagan aide Ken Khachigian of California and former California political strategist Ken Rietz.

Khachigian said he signed on because Thompson brings more to the campaign. "It puts someone in the picture with a) high name ID and visibility; and b) eight years of experience in the Senate; and c) exceptional communicating skills, certainly in the television age; and d) a more convincing conservative alternative to the other top tier candidates."

He reported that "my phone has been ringing from people who want to get on board." Many of the callers, he said "had stayed on the sidelines and weren't prepared to jump in with any of the other candidates."

Many of them were conservatives, the bloc of voters considered the biggest prize for any candidate able to rouse them. More than any recent election, they are very much up for grabs, according to David Keene, chairman of the American Conservative Union. "Thompson has a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity," he said, noting Thompson's steady climb in the polls after he opened the door to a candidacy. "That's because he's 'none of the above.' And the folks out there don't like the ones that are above. There is tremendous voter resistance in the party to the three putative front-runners. And so they're saying maybe there ought to be something else and maybe Fred Thompson is that something else."

But because the expectations are so high Thompson will have to deliver quickly once he makes his candidacy official. "People want to know, 'What's your vision?' and he has to answer that fast before they turn away," said Keene.

"That's his challenge and his problem. When you've got that much focused on you, you don't get a chance to open in New Haven. You're opening on Broadway. So he's got to have it together at the beginning."

Rich Galen, another veteran GOP strategist, said Thompson "doesn't have the advantage of trying these things out over six to seven months. He's got to be up to speed immediately."

Galen also warned that Thompson can expect an immediate surge in scrutiny from the news media and political foes scouring his record in the Senate, as a lawyer and - particularly - as a lobbyist.

And he will find himself way behind the other candidates in raising money and building organizations both nationally and in the key early states even with high poll rankings.

"He's got a real challenge to build a campaign to back that up," said Charles Black, who is now advising McCain after years spent working on the campaigns of conservatives, including Ronald Reagan.

"When the halo wears off he's got to raise a ton of money. And he has to organize the early states where he's starting six months behind everybody else. I think he'll be competitive but I'm not sure he can sustain the original spike that he'll get." Building that organization is "the hardest part," said Black, "because all the good experienced organizers in Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina are gone. There may be a few people around he can get. But it takes time to go out and get the endorsements from the local and state elected officials and to build county organizations- and they do matter."

Khachigian, though, said Thompson is using this time now to build a team and ready a message. "His challenge is to have a campaign that at the very first few days is organized and prepared and hits the ground running with a minimum of mistakes in the tactical sense. And with a pretty solid, thought-out message to convey in the first few days."

Khachigian stressed that Thompson is well aware of the challenges ahead. "It will be like we'll go from watching him on a 14-inch black-and-white TV to a high-definition plasma screen," he said.

But he promised that Thompson and his team are ready for it. "There will be a lot of scrutiny," he said. "But those of us who are involved in this have all been to the county fair. We've got experience in this."