San Diego Union Tribune

June 6, 2005

Analysis: 'Second-term-itis' afflicts Bush, casting doubt on future successes

By George E. Condon Jr.
COPLEY NEWS SERVICE

WASHINGTON – Less than five months after roaring into his second term with a bold agenda, President Bush has hit some rough times, raising questions about the fate of that agenda and the future of his presidency.

Having sunk in public opinion polls back to his level of support before the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks, Bush began a counteroffensive last week with a news conference designed to help him regain momentum with the public and with a Republican-led Congress showing signs of independence from the White House line.

"It's second-term-itis, and he's got it," presidential scholar Stephen Hess said. "We all know that in a second term the sand runs out fast, and it's maybe running out a little faster at the moment."

The president's plight is in great contrast to his post-election boast when he said, "I earned capital in the campaign, political capital, and now I intend to spend it."

But that bank is running low lately. The president has recently been forced to threaten his first veto after 50 members of his party rebuffed him on stem cell research.

Moreover, he has been obliged to watch seven Republican senators possibly bargain away several of his judicial nominees in the Senate battle over filibusters. He has also been surprised by a worse-than-expected jobs report, endured increased violence in Iraq, and seen the centerpiece of his second-term domestic agenda – an overhaul of Social Security – lose more support in Congress.

Most troubling to the White House is that the Republicans who control the Congress and were so compliant in the first term are showing an increasing willingness to stray from the path Bush laid out for the second term.

"In the first term, with unified government, there really was a sense of shared stakes and that Republicans would help themselves by helping him," said Thomas Mann, a political analyst at the Brookings Institution. "Now, to the extent that he is pursuing unpopular policies, they think he can't help them anymore, he can only hurt them. So they become warier."

Last week's news conference gave the president an opportunity to regain some of his lost momentum. Proclaiming that "I don't worry about anything here in Washington, D.C.," he used the Rose Garden session to urge skeptics to take a longer view and not to dismiss him already as a lame duck.

On Social Security, he insisted, "This is just the beginning of a very difficult debate."

But Republicans on Capitol Hill are beginning to question the White House tactics in the face of polls showing Americans rejecting Bush's proposed solution.

"He's trying to sell a solution that people don't like," said Mann, who called it "stunning" the way Bush is campaigning for his private accounts.

"He keeps going out to these states where the audiences are all selected in advance. They're all supporters. He runs through the same stuff and it has no positive impact on people's views of his dealing with this issue or his particular recommendation," Mann said. "In fact, it has moved a bit in the opposite direction."

Pollster John Zogby said Bush has convinced Americans that there is a problem but not that it has to be solved now. "Paul Revere didn't ride through the streets of Boston saying the British are coming in 43 years," Zogby said. "Folks are more concerned about gas prices today than they are about Social Security in the future, and you're not even hearing a whimper from the White House on that."

Working against the White House has been the recent rush of bad news.

"The economy is not great right now, the situation in Iraq is very tense, energy prices are high. It is not surprising that the president has got a reduced job approval," Republican pollster Frank Luntz said.

Most troubling is the recent escalation of violence in Iraq.

"It's a disappointment; it's a sadness," Luntz said. "It just lowers people's spirits. It's hard to get excited over major governmental reform when we're burying another American soldier every day."

Marshall Wittmann, a former Republican strategist now working for the Democratic Leadership Council, said the war on terror is "intrinsically linked to his overall popularity."

"If the war was going well, if our troops were coming home, he would likely be at 60 percent rather than the mid-40s," he said.

Former Rep. Lee Hamilton, a close observer of eight presidents since he first won his Indiana seat in 1964, warned last week that Bush must right his political ship soon if he is to have a successful second term.

"He's at a very critical point in his presidency. If he's going to maintain clout, if he's going to maintain political capital, he's got to turn this around because it's sliding on him," Hamilton said.

"The game is in doubt here as to whether or not he can do it. If he fails to do it, then the rest of his presidency will be greatly diminished."

But Bush has been counted out before only to mount amazing comebacks.

"He can turn it around overnight," Luntz said. "You are only irrelevant if you give up; you are only a lame duck if you give in. And this president won't give up, and he won't give in."

Zogby cautioned that Bush "has several lives."

"Do not count this guy out. His lame-duck period is blossoming a bit earlier than normal. But he does have considerable charm and political skills and a Congress controlled by his own party," he said.

Hess noted that Bush did achieve some successes in Congress before the recent run of setbacks. "What he really needs now is some good news," he said.

Wittmann agreed that Bush could rebound, but added, "Time is his enemy now, because the closer we get to 2006 the window begins closing for his potential to get anything done."

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