Obama, the son of a
black Kenyan father and a white American mother, rocketed
to political stardom at the 2004 Democratic National
Convention with a galvanizing keynote speech that
presented a vision of national reconciliation bridging the
divides of race, class, gender and ideology.
The excitement continues.
“He is hot, and you simply cannot deny that heat and
electricity that he is generating,” said John Zogby, a
nonpartisan pollster.
On the other hand, with the curtain-raising Iowa
caucuses still more than a year away, Obama might prove to
be just another political flash in the pan reminiscent of
astronaut-hero John Glenn in 1984, the Ohio senator who
flamed out as soon as Democrats started voting for a
nominee.
And there were others: former Texas Gov. John Connally
in 1980; Phil Gramm, another Texas political powerhouse
who was a senator when he ran in 1996; and retired Army
Gen. Wesley Clark in 2004. All were major public figures
whose prior résumés failed to measure their political
talent or presidential stature.
However, many within the political community say they
sense something unique about Obama that could spare him
the indignity of an early exit from the presidential
contest – should he decide to compete.
“His personality and charisma are big assets for him,”
observed Dante Scala, an expert on New Hampshire politics
at St. Anselm College in Manchester. “His record of
accomplishments in the Senate is obviously very thin at
this point. But I think there is a real sense with him
that there's a lot of potential there. And there's the
sense that he may represent the turning of a page in
American politics, a new face, a new generation of
politicians.”
Those qualities could spell trouble for others in the
Democratic field. “He is enjoying popularity and a media
bounce that I think is close to unprecedented in my 40, 45
years of observing this process,” said Don Fowler, a
former national chairman of the Democratic Party. “I can't
think of anybody who has just sort of come out of the blue
and in such a short time made such a positive,
comprehensive impression on just a wide range of people.”
Obama's flirtation with a presidential candidacy has
already forced apparent tactical adjustments by other
Democratic competitors lacking his or Clinton's star
power.
Possibly fearful of being eclipsed by a looming Obama
media frenzy, Indiana Sen. Evan Bayh announced last
weekend – earlier than expected – that he would create an
exploratory committee.
Iowa Gov. Tom Vilsack went further. He became a formal
candidate and embarked on a five-state tour to promote his
campaign.
“When you get a political celebrity in the race,
somebody who is treated as a mega-candidate, it makes it
harder for the other guys to get attention, to get on TV,”
argued Stuart Rothenberg, editor of a political
newsletter.
The problem also extends to raising the early cash and
to attracting the savvy local activists needed in the
initial round of competition for national convention
delegates in Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South
Carolina.
“The overall effect is that it makes it that much more
difficult for second-tier candidates to break out,” Scala
said. “His presence sucks a lot of the oxygen out of the
room.”
Obama also may threaten a key component of Clinton's
base – the black vote – that might otherwise find its way
to the New York senator, given the popularity of her
spouse, former President Clinton, with that constituency.
That could be crucial in South Carolina, where Richard
Harpootlian, former chairman of that state's Democratic
Party, said Obama “basically ices the black vote, which
means it will be a much more fragmented process.”
As a consistent critic of the war in Iraq who entered
the Senate after the vote in late 2002 that authorized the
use of force against Saddam Hussein, Obama has another
significant advantage over Clinton, Edwards and
Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry, the unsuccessful 2004
presidential nominee. Although they are critical of the
president's Iraq policy now, they all voted to give Bush
the leeway to invade Iraq, putting them at a potential
disadvantage in a party that has overwhelmingly turned
against the war.
Seasoned veterans such as Harpootlian caution against
being swept away by a candidate who is approaching only
his second anniversary in the Senate after a stint in the
Illinois state Senate. Obama “hasn't had to answer a
single specific question about what he would do,”
Harpootlian said. “What's his position on taxes? What's
his position on the budget? What would he do about the war
other than having been against it in the first place? He
is very articulate, very sharp, but very, very young.”
Although Obama could remain in the Senate to gain
greater seasoning, many experts say his moment may be now.
“Why would you want to sit there for another four or
eight years accumulating all those votes in the Senate
where people then have a record to pick apart?” said
Duffy, the Democratic strategist.
Stephen Hess, a presidential scholar at George
Washington University who served in both the Eisenhower
and Nixon administrations, agreed.
“I think he'd make a great mistake if he doesn't run,
because there is a time and tide in these things. . . .
Who knows where you are four years from now, eight years
from now, 12 years from now?”