And not since they controlled the White House and both
houses of Congress in 1993 have the Democrats faced a
greater opportunity to demonstrate their governing skills
to skeptics.
Neither Bush nor the Democrats displayed much
sure-footedness in responding back then. The president
acted as if he had a mandate in 2001 and steered a
hard-right course in his policies, forever alienating many
moderates and polarizing the nation. Democrats had
responded similarly to their electoral good fortune in
1993, overreaching and pushing a hard-left course that
turned off the electorate.
Now, after voters returned a divided government to
Washington, both Bush and the Democrats get a second
chance to get it right.
In the wake of Tuesday's election, both are saying the
right words and paying homage to bipartisan cooperation.
The nation got its first glimpse yesterday of a seemingly
chastened Bush on the day after his party took what he
called a “thumping” from Democrats. In defeat, Bush was
gracious and realistic about the roadblocks placed in
front of him now that the opposition controls the
legislative agenda and can wield subpoenas at will.
In return, soon-to-be House Speaker Nancy Pelosi
pledged to work with Republicans.
But the two leaders have a long way to go to forge a
working relationship. And after his party's loss, the
bigger burden is on the president to change. Most damaging
to Bush with many voters is what Republican pollster Ed
Goeas calls the president's “it's my way or the highway”
image.
“If there is one thing he has to address, it is exactly
that,” Goeas said.
Democratic pollster Doug Schoen said Bush must
radically change his governing style and return to his
Texas roots. “If George Bush does not decide to govern
from the center, govern as a compassionate conservative
and govern the way he ran Texas, his presidency will be
effectively finished,” Schoen said.
Guy Molyneux, another Democratic pollster, suggested
that the president would do well to emulate Gov. Arnold
Schwarzenegger's comeback model for governing by making
deals with Democrats on issues of importance to voters.
“I think the president's only option is to show that
he's willing to compromise and to show that he respects
reality,” Molyneux said.
Larry Sabato, director of the University of Virginia
Center for Politics, said Bush is at a crucial crossroads.
“He can be a rhetorical president who tries to build
popularity by bashing Congress. Or he can decide to return
to his earliest model of leadership in Texas with a
Democratic state legislature and actually get some things
done,” said Sabato. “It's one or the other. It's up to
him.”
If he is lucky, of course, the Democrats could bail him
out by overreaching. That happened to Republicans when
they won the Congress in 1946 and dedicated themselves to
investigating and blocking President Harry Truman. And it
happened to Republicans after they took over in 1994 and
hurled a flurry of subpoenas at the Clinton White House,
culminating in an impeachment unwanted by the public.
In 1946, Republican Speaker Joe Martin famously
promised “to open every session with a prayer and close
with a probe” of Truman. But this misread the public mood
and Republicans lost the Congress in 1948, said Sam Popkin,
professor of political science at the University of
California San Diego.
“Are you out for revenge or reform? It is going to be
hard for these guys to forget they are not just getting
even with the Republicans,” Popkin said.
The overreaching in 1946 and 1994 were fueled by the
mistaken beliefs that the incumbent president was mortally
wounded and that the public had given a mandate to the
opposition party.
Signs of both were evident in the immediate wake of
Tuesday's outcome. Eli Pariser, executive director of
MoveOn Political Action, gave voice to the views of many
liberal activists when he said, “This election spells the
end of the Bush era.”
Pressure for a wave of liberal legislation has started
building from Iraq war foes and organized labor.
“We are counting on this new slate of leaders to help
workers, just as we helped them achieve so many great
victories,” said Gerald McEntee, head of AFSCME, a giant
union representing state and local government workers.
Pelosi is being advised to resist this pressure.
“If the Democrats think this is a mandate, boy, they
are crazy,” said Charlie Cook, an independent political
analyst. “Midterm elections are about punishing. People
are driven by anger – anger and/or fear.”

Copley News Service
correspondent Otto Kreisher contributed to this report.