WASHINGTON – Candidates across the country enter the
final week of the campaign with control of Congress very
much at stake and both parties determined to influence the
few remaining undecided voters with an onslaught of
negative messages.
For Republicans, whose grip on the House and the Senate
is threatened, the attack will be waged primarily on
issues of security and character. By one estimate, more
than 90 percent of the television time bought by the
Republican National Committee in the closing days has been
for negative ads.
For Democrats, who see this as their best chance to
regain power since the party lost control of Congress in
1994, the negative surge will come amid questions about
President Bush's stewardship of the Iraq war and the
honesty of congressional Republicans.
“The Republicans will continue to try to make sure that
the voters know that the Democrats are evil incarnate,”
said Jim Duffy, a Democratic veteran of several campaigns.
“And the Democrats will keep pushing back on the war and
the dislike of the president by a majority of the
electorate. The themes are pretty well established.”
In addition to the high-volume attacks, Republicans are
hoping to retain congressional majorities through their
voter targeting and turnout expertise that even Democrats
admire.
Because the stakes are so big, the intensity has been
ratcheted much higher than in recent campaign cycles.
Republicans, who only a couple weeks ago were braced for
the possible loss of both chambers, seemed to regain their
footing somewhat last week and now suggest that they can
keep the Senate even if they lose the House.
Democrats need to win six seats in the Senate and 15 in
the House to take control. In private, Republicans concede
they are in big trouble in the House and Democrats
acknowledge that their shot at the Senate may be slipping
away as many Republican candidates seem to be benefiting
from hard-hitting ads in key states. Republicans also have
concluded that the damage was short-lived from the scandal
involving former Rep. Mark Foley's sexually explicit
e-mails to congressional pages.
“It seems like Republican candidates have caught a
little puff of wind here as we move away from the Foley
business,” Republican strategist Rich Galen said.
Charlie Black, who has been advising Republican
candidates back to Ronald Reagan, also has begun to feel
less pessimistic. “It looks like we have crept back up
some,” he said Friday. “It's not huge, but I think we
bottomed out the middle of last week.”
Both sides agree that the key will be whether
conservatives who have grown disenchanted with Bush, the
war or the Republican-led Congress stay at home or go to
the polls simply to avert a Democratic Congress.
Black said the final
week is crucial to nudging those conservatives to go vote.
“The last seven days is when you have to get your
(wavering) voters motivated to turn out,” he said.
To that end, the president and Republican candidates
and their ads will spend the final days hitting issues
dear to the heart of conservatives – the border fence,
immigration, gay marriage, tax cuts and homeland security.
Republicans believe they were blessed when a narrowly
divided New Jersey Supreme Court ruled last week that gays
are entitled to the same legal benefits as traditional
married couples. Galen has urged Republican candidates to
link that ruling with the woman who would become speaker
if the Democrats take control – Rep. Nancy Pelosi of San
Francisco.
“I would say that if Democrats control Congress then
you'll have Sister Boom-Boom as the clerk of the House,”
he said. “So if that's what you want, then stay home and
don't vote.”
He said the gay marriage issue may only change 2
percent of the vote. “But that's a big number if you're
sitting on a 43-43 race.”
Galen credited the spate of negative ads with bringing
Republicans back within striking distance.
“Negative ads always work,” he said. “Human beings are
hard-wired to love gossip. We all deny it but we're all
lying to ourselves. Negative ads are nothing more than
highly distilled 30 seconds of gossip and that's why they
work. We will believe bad information about somebody no
matter how much good information we know.”
In recent days, Republicans have asked voters to
believe that some Democrats have failed to pay their
taxes, supported pedophilia, studied sexual habits of
teens, promoted sex between black men and white women,
written dirty novels, freed serial killers and want
America to lose the war on terror.
Democratic strategist Maryanne Marsh said Democrats are
braced for more “fear and smear” from Republicans in the
final days.
“The only thing they are running on is trying to tear
apart Democrats on a personal level,” said Democratic
pollster Mark Mellman, who doubts the national mood has
shifted in the last week. “If they bottomed out, they
bottomed out at a really low point. We still see a big
anti-Republican wave.”
Both sides acknowledge that Republicans in recent
cycles have been much better than Democrats at targeting
and turning out their voters. “I tip my hat to them,”
Marsh said. “Their microtargeting, the way they use e-mail
and direct mail and their 72-hour program are all
exceptional.”
“Microtargeting,” which has been perfected by the GOP,
allows the party to get specific messages to any group
they want, from male snowmobilers to female bowlers.
But Democrats hope their enthusiasm can counter that.
“Our base is much more enthusiastic, much more turned on,
much more likely to turn out this year than is the
Republican base,” Mellman said.