DES MOINES, Iowa – A
bipartisan hunger for something different swept across
Iowa last night, fundamentally shaking up the Democratic
presidential race and further muddling the Republican
contest.

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The impact will be felt the most in the Democratic
race, where longtime front-runner Sen. Hillary Rodham
Clinton was humbled by a third-place finish and political
newcomer Sen. Barack Obama's star power was affirmed.
For the Republicans, the vote was an embrace of former
Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee but also very much a rejection
of a field of candidates that party members find less than
appealing. Undeniably, the results were a humiliating loss
for former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, the man who had
all the money and all the organization.
Both parties have little time to analyze what happened
here, with the crucial New Hampshire primary only five
days away. But what Iowans did was remarkable,
particularly in their demand for change and an almost
palpable sense that they are sick and tired of partisan
wrangling and the blue state-red state divide.
In some ways, the night was comparable to John F.
Kennedy's famous win in the West Virginia primary in 1960.
Just as Kennedy had to prove a Catholic could win in an
overwhelmingly Protestant state, Obama needed to show that
a black contender could prevail in an overwhelmingly white
state.
By winning so convincingly in one of the whitest states
– Iowa is 95 percent white – the Illinois senator wasted
no time dismissing that question. Not only did Obama win,
he helped generate an unprecedented increase in the
turnout.
Now the questions swirl around Clinton.
It might not be fair, since the difference between
second and third place was so slight. But politics are not
always fair. Third place deals a serious blow to Clinton's
campaign, stripping it of its aura of inevitability and
guaranteeing her a state-by-state battle none of her
strategists envisioned just a few months ago.
That aura had obscured the reality that the New York
senator and her message were never an easy fit for this
state and its caucus system. Her early support for the war
in Iraq and cautious refusal to move further leftward hurt
her with the activists who make up the core of Democratic
caucus-goers.
Now she must be wondering why she didn't take the
advice of some advisers to bypass Iowa.
Clinton isn't the first front-runner to stumble in this
state with its quirky caucus rules. Ronald Reagan, Michael
Dukakis, Walter Mondale, George H.W. Bush, Robert Dole,
Howard Dean, Edward M. Kennedy – all entered Iowa leading
the pack and all fell short of expectations. Three of them
– Bush, Dukakis and Dean – finished third here.
But all except for Dean and Kennedy recovered to win
their party's nomination. Clinton's recovery will be
difficult, though, for two reasons.
First is the short time between Iowa and next week's
New Hampshire primary. It usually takes two days for an
“Iowa bounce” to materialize, and it usually does not
dissipate for a week. In 1980, Reagan had five weeks to
recover from his Iowa loss, and he needed four of those
weeks to right his campaign.
“There is almost no time for her to change things,”
said veteran Democratic strategist Mary Anne Marsh. “The
only event that can change the dynamic is the debate
Saturday night. The next five days are going to be some of
the most fascinating political fighting ever seen in New
Hampshire.”
The second factor working against Clinton is that Obama
is not the normal insurgent. When candidates such as Gary
Hart in 1984, Richard Gephardt in 1988, Pat Buchanan in
1992 and John McCain in 2000 scored surprisingly well in
the early going, they could not sustain their success when
the campaign broadened into big states. They had neither
the organization nor the money needed.
Obama has both. And his win here will boost something
else he has generated – excitement.
As Clinton switches gears, the results in Iowa were
also deeply disappointing for John Edwards, who had bet
everything on the state where he finished a strong second
four years ago. The former North Carolina senator is
woefully underfunded compared with Obama and Clinton, and
he needed a win here to keep his funds from drying up.
The Republican outcome is likely to have a less
consequential impact. It signals weakness in Romney's
campaign. And it may hasten an end to the once-promising
campaign of former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson.
But Huckabee's good showing does not make the former
Arkansas governor the national front-runner. The results
also helped Arizona Sen. John McCain, who campaigned
sparingly here but now has a chance in New Hampshire to
beat up Romney near his home turf.
“There is this enormous vacuum in the Republican
Party,” said independent analyst Charlie Cook. “And when
you have a vacuum, a group like the evangelicals can seize
the initiative and that's exactly what happened.”
Romney was never able to make a personal connection
with Iowans, showing poorly when contrasted with the
folksy and likable Huckabee. And Romney never countered
the criticism on his record.
“The flip-flop label stuck to Romney and really hurt
him,” said Sherry Bebitch Jeffe, a University of Southern
California political analyst who traveled to Iowa to
observe the caucuses.