San Diego Union-Tribune

October 9, 2001

Pakistan chief holds reins for now
      Protests suggest that things could change

By MARCUS STERN 
COPLEY NEWS SERVICE 

PESHAWAR, Pakistan -- Despite pockets of violence and anti-American protests in several Pakistani cities yesterday, President Pervez Musharraf appeared to retain a firm grip on the nation 24 hours after bombs and missiles began raining on neighboring Afghanistan.

For now, that control allows Musharraf, a 58-year-old Army general who seized power in a coup in 1999, to remain a strong supporter of the U.S.-led campaign against terrorism and Afghanistan's Taliban rulers.

By the time the second night of raids got under way, violent protests in the frontier town of Quetta and port city of Karachi had been quelled and protests in Peshawar had been controlled by police with tear gas and cane sticks.

But the intensity of the protests suggested that the political situation in Pakistan remains precarious and could change from day to day.

That concern was underscored yesterday when President Bush agreed to send Secretary of State Colin Powell to Pakistan and India later this week for diplomatic talks.

Also, Musharraf reassigned two senior military officials seen as sympathetic to the Taliban, the target of the airstrikes.

At a wide-ranging, hourlong news conference in Islamabad the morning after the first wave of attacks, Musharraf said "the people of Pakistan are with my government."

While Musharraf backs the U.S.-British military strikes, he has argued against support for the Northern Alliance, the Afghan military group that seeks to overthrow the Taliban. Nevertheless, the attacks and his support of them have triggered wide public resentment in Pakistan. 

Islamic political parties stoked the resentment yesterday with protests against the United States and Musharraf.

Quetta, just across the border from the Taliban Afghan stronghold of Kandahar, was the scene of the day's most violent protests. One protester was killed and 26 were injured, according to reports there.

Pro-Taliban protesters burned two movie theaters -- said to be showing American films -- and other businesses. They also stoned the offices of the U.N. refugee agency and set fire to the nearby United Nations Children's Fund, according to a U.N. statement. No injuries were reported.

In Karachi, protesters torched three buses and fought police.

Police used gunfire to disperse a pro-Taliban rally in Landi Kotal, a market town in the tribal areas of the Khyber Pass near the Afghan border.

In Peshawar, which has a heavy concentration of Afghan refugees, police used tear gas and canes to break up a protest led by one of the Islamic political parties. A planned rally later in the day was pre-empted by police.

Peshawar University and other colleges across Pakistan's Northwest Frontier Province were shut indefinitely yesterday as a precaution against student unrest, according to police officials.

One government security official in Peshawar, who asked not to be identified, said protests were expected across Pakistan in the wake of the attacks and were not as bad as anticipated, especially in Peshawar, which has a large Afghan refugee population.

He credited Musharraf for using the weeks leading up to the attacks to prepare the public and make his case that joining the global coalition against terrorism was in the country's best interest.

But the official warned that conditions could change quickly.

The number of casualties in Afghanistan could be a key factor in changing the dynamic. So could the effectiveness of the religious parties in whipping up anti-American sentiment, which could increase pressure on Musharraf to shift his position.

The religious parties have been portraying the attacks in Afghanistan as a war against the religion of Islam and the Muslims who follow it, painting Osama bin Laden, the prime suspect in the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks, as a scapegoat.

Experts generally view Musharraf as safe as long as he retains the support of the military, where he is immensely popular.

"To my knowledge, there is really no group within Pakistan to dislodge this military regime," said R.K. Ramazani, an expert on Middle Eastern affairs at the University of Virginia and an adviser to the White House on the region. "They have the sword, the power to survive this."

But experts also cautioned that Musharraf could face a challenge within the military if large numbers of civilians are killed by the missile and bomber attacks in Afghanistan or if the action causes a major influx of refugees.

Pakistan already is home to 2 million Afghan refugees, and the United Nations has predicted that the airstrikes could bring an additional million.

The Pakistani government had said it would open the border to Afghan refugees if or when the airstrikes began. But the U.N. High Commissioner on Refugees said late yesterday there was no sign that the border had been opened.

If anything, it was even tighter, one official said.

Copley News Service correspondent Toby Eckert contributed to this report from Washington.